The war has waged on for two years–ten years if you count the annexation of Crimea. Ukraine has done better than expected, managing to push the Russians from the north and reclaiming notable land in the south. At one point, the Ukrainians even mentioned retaking Crimea. But more recently, Ukraine has not been doing so well. Its counteroffensives were lackluster, and Russian forces have been taking towns. Ukraine is looking more vulnerable; the Russians even hit a nuclear reactor recently.
Why has Ukraine been performing so badly lately? Mostly, it has been a lack of military supplies. In the U.S. Congress, up until recently, Republicans had blocked any plans to give Ukraine more aid until Democrats met their requests involving the U.S. border. Many saw this as using a country that was fighting for its freedom against tyranny for their own gain. The main thing that Ukraine needs is artillery shells. Artillery, since the dawn of the cannon and the mortar, has been pivotal in battles, turning the tide many times. Without artillery shells, I fear that Ukraine will lose momentum and burn out.
Russian forces are slowly improving and employing better tactics. Simply put, they aren’t as foolish as they were two years ago. The Russian high command has learned at a tremendous cost. With elections in both Ukraine and the United States this year, there is reason to fear for Ukraine’s future. I think that we have a year until the full collapse of the Ukrainian front under the weight of Russian forces. More than likely, the Russians will impose retribution. Killing, torture, burning, and rape would be likely possibilities. It has already happened in parts of Ukraine that experienced Russian occupation. While the war rages on, I believe that the U.S. government must step up–by which I mean the right, which doesn’t want to help Ukraine. On the other hand, the Speaker of the House, Mike Johnson, recently seems to have seen reason. He allowed a vote on new funding for Ukraine, which about half of Republicans and all Democrats supported. He may not be Speaker for long, at least without Democratic support, as the far right may attempt to remove him as they did with McCarthy.
