The Russo-Ukrainian War is a conflict that started over the control of land in the Eastern European nation of Ukraine. It started on February 20, 2014 with the Russian invasion of Crimea, followed by the Donbas region. That war has raged on for eight years. However when Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, the war reached a new scale and intensity.
The 2022 invasion started with a heavy Russian bombardment. Then the infantry advanced, which would prove to be a complete disaster for Russia. (An example of a better plan would be Operation Desert Storm. It took around a month for U.S. ground units to be cleared to attack Iraq.) Russia didn’t wait. It attacked from the north, south, and east. The first days seemed to go well, as the Russians took a lot of ground. However, as they pushed toward Kiev, the fighting didn’t go well for them.
Ultimately, the Russians were pushed out of northern Ukraine. Although there has been heavy fighting and heavy losses on both sides, Ukraine has gotten the better of Russia on multiple occasions. As more and more aid arrives (and soon F-16 fighters), it is clear that the tide is turning. Ukraine is using modern weapons, while Russia has pulled equipment from old World War II stockpiles.
Why is the war going so badly for Russia? There are several major factors, as I see it. First, there is bad leadership. Putin’s plans haven’t worked, and there isn’t anyone in Russia who can tell him the unvarnished truth. Then there is the disloyal and corrupt military. Putin’s military is reporting false information about its equipment, for example, while individuals sell it on the side. There was also the Wagner revolt, in which the leader of Wagner PMC (private military company) rose up and tried to take Moscow before making a deal. Although the leader of Wagner later died under suspicious circumstances, the loyalty of the Russian elite is always a question mark. In addition, we have to consider the Western help for Ukraine, while sanctions and a shortage of equipment hamper Russia. These factors have a cumulative effect. Another reason why Russia is failing so miserably is that it is fighting an opponent with flexible tactics. For instance, in Bakhmut, an important town for the defense of the Donbas, there are large apartments, which serve as very useful hiding spots for antitank gun groups. For many months, the Ukrainians made the Russians pay dearly for their assault on the town. Now Russia controls Bakhmut, but Ukraine has started to threaten it again.
Being able to hold and even take back land has given the Ukrainian military hope. Along with striking targets within Russian itself, it is clear that Ukraine is switching from a defensive strategy to a more offensive approach. Although there are more rumors of a Russian counterattack, of which I am skeptical, it seems that Ukraine may be able to win the war. At the very least, it is pushing back in the south and the east and striking Russian naval targets. We will have to see what happens next.
